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Monthly Archives: September 2013

Falling Averages: A-Rod & Baseball’s Decline

21 Saturday Sep 2013

Posted by Matt in Uncategorized

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Last night I was at Yankee Stadium to see the home team beat the Giants, 5-1, on a grand slam by Alex Rodriguez in the seventh inning. It was his 24th grand slam, moving him ahead of Lou Gerhig as the all-time career leader in the category.

ARod Hits Record Grand SlamIt’s hard to watch A-Rod at the plate and not think about steroids and PEDs, which got me thinking about how hitting performance in Major League Baseball has trended, particularly in the last few years as the league has taken steps to crack down on cheating.

In 1999, the total MLB batting average (combined for all players in the American & National Leagues), was .271, its highest in 60 years (in 1939 it was .275).

Since 1999, the averages have trended downward, and have declined in particular since 2006, from .269 that year to .255 last year.  That’s a drop of over 5%.

Source: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hibavg4.shtml

Source: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hibavg4.shtml

It’s also interesting to note that the American League (which due to its Designated Hitter historically has a higher batting average) has declined even more, at 7.3% over the same period.   A-Rod’s batting average has declined 6.2% since 2006 and 15.3% since his best average as a Yankee in 2005 of .321.

I was surprised to see that the AL batting average is now almost identical to the NL batting average, indicating that the DHs’ decline has contributed significantly since the PED crackdown.

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Syria & Russia. And Tartus.

13 Friday Sep 2013

Posted by Matt in Uncategorized

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tartus syria

For those of you who (like me) could use a primer on Syria, take a look at the attached slides by Deutsche Bank Global Public Affairs (8/26/13).  It’s a quick read and provides a user-friendly overview of the basics.

It also outlines Russia’s relationship with Syria.  Some highlights:

  • “For centuries, a key geopolitical objective of Moscow has been access to a war[m], deep-water port. Additionally, they have wanted one outside of the Bosporus which could give them access to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean.”
  • “Despite having 110,310 km of coastline, Russia does not have a single territorial port that is free year round from ice or the constraints of another power (its Black Sea ports depend on Turkey (NATO) allowing Russian ships to pass through the Bosporus).”
  • “Syria has allowed Russia to use the deep water naval base in Tartus, Syria – a critical asset in Russian military and geopolitical strategy. Thus, Syria is vital strategic staging point for Russia and Iranian foreign policy in the region.”

bosporus-wiki-gnu-map

 

bosporus

  • “Earlier this year, due to the escalating violence in Syria, Russia was forced to withdraw her naval forces from Tartus – a naval base granted to Russia by Syria.”

_61208869_tart

From an historical perspective, Russia has been trying to acquire a port like Tartus at least as far back as the 1500s.  So while this isn’t the only reason why Russia is so focused on the situation in Syria, it’s an important factor.  Five hundred years is a long time spent trying to get something.

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How Many Heart Beats Do We Get?

08 Sunday Sep 2013

Posted by Matt in Uncategorized

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Recently I’ve been wearing one of those heart rate watches to the gym. 

It’s actually pretty fun to develop a feel for when my heart rate is at 120 beats per minute or at 160, or is spiking at 180 (I try not to go above that).  For most of us, our average heart rate is 70-75 bpm.

My brother forwarded me an interesting chart which shows how human bpms compare to other animals.  As the downward sloping line in the chart on the left shows, there’s typically a pretty good (inverse) link between bpms and life expectancy (if bpms are high, then life expectancy is low). [Note: I’m not sure why they have “whale” listed twice on this chart.]

ImageWhat’s really interesting to see is where “Man” falls.  Given our bpms, we should be with tigers and giraffes who have a life expectancy of ~20 years.  And in the Neolithic era 5-10 thousand years ago, human life expectancy actually was 20 years.

But today the average American lives 4 times as long as this, on average 78 years (as of 2008).  Diet, medicine, technology, etc have all boosted our life expectancy to extraordinary degrees.

The chart on the right is interesting too, mainly because its display greatly undersells the number of extra beats humans get — because the chart’s scale is exponential.  10 to the 9th power is 1 billion; 10 to the 10th power is 10 billion.  That 9 billion difference is a pretty big one for such a little shift to the right!  For humans, we’re about 10 to the 9.4th power, which is 2.5 billion beats over our lifetimes, or about 80 years.

So next time you’re at the gym, you can be thankful that after exercising, your heart rate will settle back down to a much more sustainable level!

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  • Falling Averages: A-Rod & Baseball's Decline
  • Syria & Russia. And Tartus.
  • How Many Heart Beats Do We Get?
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  • Falling Averages: A-Rod & Baseball’s Decline
  • Syria & Russia. And Tartus.
  • How Many Heart Beats Do We Get?
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